August 23, 2011 from Business Finance – “The first thing the management team needs to accept is that no traditional budget can withstand a 40 to 50 percent change in a material assumption. In today’s volatile and uncertain world, the situation the management team faced is no longer a rare occurrence. Nearly every organization has to deal with unexpected material changes to key budget assumptions as a result of rapid changes in key input prices or the impact of material external events whether it’s a natural disaster, such as the earthquake in Japan, or the downgrading of U.S. government debt.
In the face of such uncertainty, executives are looking for tools that can help them plan with greater confidence. The result is a very different process than the traditional annual approach to budgeting, quarterly forecasting and monthly reporting. Today, in an era when the constant is change, four attributes should be part of the process:
- The expectation that assumptions will be wrong
- An early warning system
- Real-time analytics capabilities
- Ability to act with speed and confidence…
Traditional budgets often contain far too much detail under the mistaken assumption that the more detailed the budget, the more accurate it will be. When there is great uncertainty around certain aspects of the budget, sacrificing detail for flexibility by developing alternate scenarios that map out how resources and performance will change under different sets of assumptions is key…
180 View – Great advice and worth reading if you’re involved in budgeting and forecasting.